Ethereum ETF Approval Expected May 23

Updated February 13, 2024 2 min read

Ethereum ETF Approval Expected May 23

Ethereum ETF Approval Expected May 23

In a striking forecast, Standard Chartered envisioned Bitcoin soaring to an unprecedented $200,000 following ETF approval, turning the market's eager eyes towards Ethereum. Without promising the skies, the bank anticipates Ethereum to ascend to $4,000 by May 23, aligning with its expected ETF nod. This projection isn't just optimistic whimsy; it's grounded in a detailed analysis by Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick, who meticulously parallels the Ethereum ETF application process with the precedents set by Bitcoin's ETF journey.

Analysis of Ethereum ETF Approval Prospects

Reflecting on the SEC's embrace of 11 new Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, a blueprint emerges for Ethereum's ETF ambitions. Kendrick underscores the SEC's approach to Ethereum ETFs as mirroring the Bitcoin precedent, supported by both assets' non-classification as "securities" in the SEC's eyes during the Ripple litigation and their status as regulated futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This parallel sets a strong foundation for anticipating Ethereum ETF approvals by May 23, drawing from the Bitcoin ETF approval playbook.

Conditions for Ethereum's Price Surge

For Ethereum to mirror Bitcoin's pre-ETF approval price trajectory, Standard Chartered delineates three pivotal conditions. Firstly, the market's current perception of the approval likelihood must be modest, akin to the Bitcoin scenario. This appears to be the case, with mixed sentiments among analysts about the SEC's decision. Secondly, the market's underestimation of the approval odds must be incorrect, a stance bolstered by SEC Chair Gary Gensler's selective security classification excluding Ethereum. Lastly, the SEC's approval of multiple Ethereum ETFs on May 23 is crucial, echoing the comprehensive approval process seen with Bitcoin ETFs. This trifecta of conditions sets the stage for a potential Ethereum price rally.

Ethereum vs. Bitcoin Post-ETF Approval

Anticipating the post-ETF approval landscape, Ethereum's path seems distinct from Bitcoin's post-approval retreat. The Grayscale Ethereum Trust's smaller market cap share compared to Bitcoin's pre-ETF scenario and lesser influence of FTX holdings suggest a reduced vulnerability to sell-off pressures. This nuanced market dynamics, coupled with an expected cessation of heavy GBTC selling and sustained inflows into new Bitcoin ETFs, forecasts a resilient uptrend for Ethereum in the lead-up to and following the ETF approval.

Ethereum stands at a pivotal juncture, buoyed by historical precedents, favorable SEC inclinations, and robust market dynamics. As the crypto community eyes the May 23 deadline, Ethereum's blend of regulatory anticipation and inherent strengths positions it for a potentially lucrative ascent, reshaping the landscape of virtual assets.